Morning Call: Global stocks mostly higher ahead of a speech from Fed Chair Powell; Dec E-mini S&Ps up +0.42% at a 1-week high.
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 ESZ18 - S&P 500 E-Mini

Overnight Markets and News

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ18 +0.34%) this morning are up +0.42% at a 1-week high and European stocks are up +0.28% as a rally in Asian bourses carried over into European and U.S. trading. Activity was muted ahead of a speech later today by Fed Chair Powell to the New York Economic Club that will be parsed for any hints the Fed may pause its rate-hike cycle. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan +1.02%, Hong Kong +1.33%, China +1.05%, Taiwan +1.08%, Australia -0.06%, Singapore +0.13%, South Korea +0.50%, India +0.57%. China's Shanghai Composite recovered from a 4-week low and moved higher and Japan's Nikkei Stock Index climbed to a 2-week high on optimism the U.S.-China trade rift can be resolved after Larry Kudlow, President Trump's top economic adviser, said President Trump is open to a deal with China. President Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping over dinner Saturday at the G-30 summit in Buenos Aires.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.01%) is up +0.01% at a 2-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD -0.02%) is down -0.07% at a 2-week low after German Dec GfK consumer confidence fell to a 1-1/2 year low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY +0.01%) is down -0.03%.

Dec 10-year T-note prices (ZNZ18 -0-010) are unchanged.

Eurozone Oct M3 money supply rose +3.9% y/y, stronger than expectations of +3.5% y/y.

German Dec GfK consumer confidence fell -0.2 to a 1-1/2 year low of 10.4, weaker than expectations of -0.1 to 10.5.

U.S. Stock Preview

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (previous -0.1% to 316.4 with purchase sub-index +3.1% to 227.7 and refi sub-index -5.0% to 783.7), (2) Oct wholesale inventories (expected +0.4%, Sep +0.3%) and Oct retail inventories (Sep +0.1%), (3) revised Q3 GDP (expected unrevised at +3.5% q/q annualized), (4) Oct new home sales (expected +4.0% to 575,000, Sep -5.5% to 553,000), (5) Nov Richmond Fed manufacturing survey (expected unch at 15, Oct -14 to 15), (6) EIA weekly Petroleum Status Report, (7) Treasury auctions $18 billion of 2-year floating-rate notes and $32 billion of 7-year T-notes, Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks to the Economic Club of New York.

Notable Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: Tiffany (consensus $0.78), Dick's Sporting Goods (0.26), Burlington Stores (1.06), JM Smucker (2.29), Veeva Systems (0.38).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences during the remainder of this week: Citi Basic Materials Conference on Tue-Wed, Credit Suisse Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on Tue-Wed, Jefferies Global Energy Conference on Tue-Wed, Evercore ISI HealthconX Conference on Tue-Wed, Piper Jaffray Health Care Conference on Tue-Thu, American Bankers Small Business Conference on Wed, Capital Research Global Mid-Cap Conference on Wed, Deutsche Bank Gaming, Lodging, Leisure & Restaurants One on One Conference on Wed, European Women in Technology Conference on Wed, Credit Suisse Industrials Conference on Wed-Thu, Deal Economy Conference on Thu, Inside FinTech with Blockchain Agenda Conference on Thu.

Market Comments

Dec S&P 500 E-minis (ESZ18 +0.34%) this morning are up +11.25 points (+0.42%) at a 1-week high. Tuesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.33%, Dow Jones +0.44%, Nasdaq 100 +0.34%. The S&P 500 on Tuesday closed higher on strength in retailer stocks on optimism for a strong holiday shopping season after Adobe said U.S. consumers spent $7.9 billion online on Cyber Monday, up +19.7% y/y and the largest online shopping day of all time in the U.S. Stocks were also bolstered by comments from Larry Kudlow, President Trump's top economic adviser, who said President Trump is ready to make a trade deal with China. Stocks were undercut by trade tensions after President Trump said he expects to move ahead with an increase on tariffs to 25% on $200 billion of Chinese goods and he's prepared to add tariffs of 10% or 25% to the final batch of $267 billion of Chinese goods "if we don't make a deal."

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ18 -0-010) this morning are unch. Tuesday's closes: TYZ8 +3.50, FVZ8 +2.50. Dec 10-year T-notes on Tuesday closed higher on carry-over support from a rally in 10-year German bunds to a 2-3/4 month high and on reduced inflation expectations after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate tumbled to an 11-month low.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.01%) this morning is up +0.013 (+0.01%) at a 2-week high, EUR/USD (^EURUSD -0.02%) is down -0.0008 (-0.07%) at a 2-week low, and USD/JPY (^USDJPY +0.01%) is down -0.03 (-0.03%). Tuesday's closes: Dollar Index +0.295 (+0.30%), EUR/USD -0.0039 (-0.34%), USD/JPY +0.21 (+0.18%). The dollar index on Tuesday climbed to a 2-week high and closed higher on comments from Fed Vice Chair Clarida who said the Fed's gradual approach to rate hikes is appropriate. There was also weakness in EUR/USD which fell to a 1-1/2 week low after the German business magazine Wirtchaftsworche reported that President Trump may impose tariffs on European cars next week after the G-20 meeting.

Metals prices this morning are higher with Dec gold (GCZ18 +0.01%) +0.8 (+0.07%), Dec silver (SIZ18 +0.26%) +0.041 (+0.29%), and Dec copper (HGZ18 +1.03%) +0.028 (+1.03%). Tuesday's closes: Dec Comex gold (GCZ18) on Tuesday closed down -$9.00 an ounce (-0.74%) and Dec Comex silver (SIZ18) closed down -0.121 (-0.85%). Dec gold and silver sold-off to 1-1/2 week lows Tuesday as a rally in the dollar index to a 2-week high weighed on metals prices. Reduced inflation expectations also curbed demand for gold as an inflation hedge after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate fell to an 11-month low. Silver prices also fell back as President Trump's threat Monday afternoon of more tariffs on Chinese goods fueled concerns about demand for industrial metals. On the positive side, recent stock market volatility has boosted demand for gold as a store of wealth as long gold positions in ETFs rose to a 3-3/4 month high on Monday of 2,143 MT.

Jan WTI crude oil prices (CLF19 +0.43%) this morning are up +2 cents (+0.04%) and Jan gasoline (RBF19 +0.57%) is up +0.46 (+0.33%). Tuesday's closes: Jan WTI crude oil (CLF19) on Tuesday closed down -$0.07 per barrel (-0.14%) and Jan Brent crude (CBF19) closed down -$0.27 (-0.45%). Jan RBOB gasoline (RBF19) closed down -1.92 cents a gallon (-1.35%). A rally in the dollar index to a 2-week high Tuesday put pressure on the energy complex. Also, comments from Kuwaiti Oil Minister Bakheet Al-Rashidi weighed on crude prices when he said "it's too early to talk about any cuts" in crude production. Another negative was API data Tuesday afternoon that showed U.S. crude supplies rose +3.45 million bbl last week. On the positive side, Wednesday's weekly EIA crude inventories are expected to fall by -1.0 million bbl. The markets are looking toward this weekend's meeting in Buenos Aires between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salam and Russian President Putin for any signal that OPEC+ will cut production next year. OPEC+ will meet in Vienna on Dec 6-7 and market expectations are for the group to announce a cut of 1.1 million bpd in crude production. Crude prices plunged last week with Jan WTI crude slumping to a 13-month low Friday and Jan Brent crude dropping to a 1-year low on global oversupply concerns. Reports last week indicated that Saudi Arabian oil output has increased to a record 11.2 million bpd from 10.8-10.9 million bpd earlier in November.

Overnight U.S. Stock Movers

Burlington Stores (BURL -0.75%) jumped more than 7% in pre-market trading after it boosted its full-year adjusted EPS view to $6.33 to $6.37 from a prior view of $6.13 to $6.20, above consensus of $6.23.

Nasdaq (NDAQ +0.03%) was rated a new 'Overweight' at Atlantic Equities LLP with a price target of $105.

Varian Medical Systems (VAR +0.17%) was rated a new 'Buy' at UBS with a price target of $140. (CRM +0.89%) climbed almost 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 61 cents, higher than consensus of 50 cents, and then raised guidance on full-year adjusted EPS to $2.60 to $2.61 from a prior view of $2.50 to $2.52, well above consensus of $2.52.

Chesapeake Utilities (CPK -2.12%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Maxim Group LLC with a price target of $100.

Bluebird Bio (BLUE -4.36%) was rated a new 'Outperform' at Leerink Partners LLC with a price target of $145.

DaVita (DVA +3.13%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Raymond James with a price target of $70.

Eaton Vance (EV -1.44%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Neutral' at JPMorgan Chase with a price target of $38.

Zimmer Biomet Holdings (ZBH -0.11%) was rated a new 'Buy' at UBS with a price target of $140.

Regenxbio (RGNX -0.72%) was rated a new 'Underperform' at Leerink Partners LLC with a price target of $42.

Nutanix (NTNX -1.80%) jumped 8% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 revenue of $313.3 million, better than consensus of $305.2 million, and then forecast Q2 revenue of $325 million to $335 million, the midpoint above consensus of $325.9 million.

Global Net Lease (GNL +1.61%) fell 4% in after-hours trading after it announced the launch of an underwritten public offering of 4 million shares of common stock.

BrightView Holdings (BV -2.16%) rallied 10% in after-hours trading after it forecast 2019 revenue of $2.40 billion to $2.47 billion, the midpoint above consensus of $2.43 billion.

Rexahn Pharmaceuticals (RNN +1.80%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Brookline Capital with a price target of $10.